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Get Ready For The Spring Rally In Oil

Daryl Montgomery on April 10, 2017

Summary

Short-term seasonal factors favor rising oil prices in the spring.

A major change in the supply/demand dynamic in the oil market also is taking place in spring 2017.

The next two major resistance prices that oil can rally to are given.

In 2016, WTI crude oil rallied from February 11th to June 9th. A rally in 2017, during that same period is also likely (so far, oil bottomed on February 8th). This can be predicted with some certainty because of the seasonal demand patterns for the commodity. Global demand for oil peaks in the summer driving season in the Northern Hemisphere. The market starts to anticipate the supply/demand dynamic shifting in favor of the demand side by the end of February. By June, the market will have fully priced this in, unless demand is higher than usual and/or supply less than anticipated. In that case, the rally can go on until September.

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